Petrol prices climb to $3.50 a litre despite falling crude oil costs

What happened

Petrol prices at New Zealand pumps have climbed from about $3.15 to more than $3.50 a litre since mid-September, even as the price of Dubai crude oil has fallen from $210 to $192 a barrel over the same period, according to Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment data. The gap reflects several factors. Refining costs and fuel shipping expenses have risen significantly due to global supply chain complexity and Middle East disruptions that have forced Asian refineries to source oil from alternative suppliers. Analysts note that crude oil prices are not a direct indicator of retail fuel prices; wholesale petrol (Singapore Mogas) and crude oil can move differently, and there is typically a two to three-week lag between wholesale market changes and pump price shifts. Z Energy Chief Executive Lindis Jones attributed the rises mainly to increased refining and shipping costs. One economist expects petrol prices may stabilise or fall in coming weeks, as wholesale refined fuel prices have recently stabilised and the New Zealand dollar exchange rate remains steady with no additional upward pressure.

Why it matters

This story builds on earlier reporting that fuel price surges have pushed a third of New Zealand businesses to raise prices and driven motorists to buy-now-pay-later services to afford fuel (8 October). Energy costs had already become the second-biggest concern for New Zealand businesses as of 8 October, ranked only below economic uncertainty. The latest data showing petrol up 24.3% annually and diesel up 55.8% extends the severity of the pressure documented in the earlier coverage.

Follow the whole thread: Fuel price surge and household cost pressures

Key facts

• Petrol prices rose from $3.15 to $3.50+ per litre since mid-September
• Dubai crude oil fell from $210 to $192 per barrel over same period
• Petrol prices up 24.3% annually, diesel up 55.8% in year to September
• Two to three-week lag between wholesale market changes and retail pump prices
• Middle East supply disruptions forcing Asian refineries to alternative oil sources

Covered byRNZStuffNewstalk ZBOtago Daily Timesinterest.co.nzNot covered byNZ Herald1NewsNewsroomThe SpinoffBusinessDesk

Coverage across the news outlets we track, as at publication.

Where the outlets differ

Newstalk ZB features an interview with Z Energy CEO Lindis Jones naming refining and shipping costs as the biggest driver. The interest.co.nz piece broadens scope to include other price pressures (electricity, gas, onions) and inflation context, with Statistics NZ data showing September monthly increases of 6.4% for petrol and 7.8% for diesel. RNZ and Otago Daily Times carry identical expert commentary from Infometrics and Westpac economists explaining the divergence between crude and retail prices.

What outlets are saying