Tropical Cyclone Wati forms early in Cook Islands waters

What happened

Tropical Cyclone Wati has developed in Cook Islands waters and is moving southeast towards the Southern Cook Islands. The system, named by New Zealand MetService, is the region's first cyclone, arriving unusually early on 16 October as the official South Pacific cyclone season does not begin until 1 November. At 8am local time, Wati was located approximately 125 km north of Suwarrow with maximum sustained winds of 74 km/h and gusts reaching 102 km/h, moving southeast at around 14 km/h. The system is expected to pass approximately 50 km east of Suwarrow around 8pm that evening. Suwarrow faces the greatest impact with damaging gale-force winds of 64 km/h, gusts to 92 km/h, heavy rain and squally thunderstorms, and high seas with damaging heavy swells. Other islands in the Cook Islands will experience strong winds, rain and rough seas at varying intensities. Cook Islands Meteorological Service Director Maara Vaiimene attributed the unusually early cyclone development to El Niño weather conditions currently affecting the region. The public has been urged to secure loose items, check emergency supplies, and stay informed through official updates.

Why it matters

Earth Sciences New Zealand forecast between seven and 11 tropical cyclones across the Southwest Pacific from November to April under elevated El Niño conditions. Tropical Cyclone Wati is the first of the season, arriving two weeks early on 16 October, demonstrating that the predicted increase in cyclone activity is already underway.

Follow the whole thread: Southwest Pacific 2026-27 cyclone season

Key facts

• Tropical Cyclone Wati is category one strength with maximum sustained winds of 74 km/h
• Located approximately 125 km north of Suwarrow at 8am local time on 16 October
• First cyclone in the region, two weeks before the official 1 November season start
• El Niño conditions contributing to unusually early cyclone development
• Expected to pass approximately 50 km east of Suwarrow around 8pm local time

What happens next

Tropical Cyclone Wati is expected to pass approximately 50 km east of Suwarrow around 8pm local time on 16 October, before moving to approximately 180 km south-southeast of Suwarrow by 10am on 17 October.

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Coverage across the news outlets we track, as at publication.

Where the outlets differ

RNZ's coverage spans the progression from tropical depression alert to cyclone formation across multiple articles. The Otago Daily Times and later RNZ articles include practical public guidance (securing loose items, checking supplies, monitoring marine forecasts) that the initial alerts did not. Stuff and NZ Herald mention NIWA and MetService predictions of elevated activity, while Newstalk ZB emphasises that the cyclone is unlikely to affect New Zealand itself.

What outlets are saying