National and Labour tied at 28% with Opportunity holding balance of power in new poll

What happened

The 1News Verian poll, conducted between October 8 and 12, puts both major parties on 28% support. The Greens fell one point to 15%, Act and New Zealand First both sit on 10%, Opportunity gained one point to 8%, and Te Pāti Māori dropped to 0.4%. On these numbers, a 125-seat Parliament would see National and Labour each winning 34 seats, with the Greens on 18, Act and NZ First on 12 each, and Opportunity on 10. Neither the right bloc (National, Act, NZ First with 58 seats) nor the left bloc (Labour, Greens with 52 seats) would reach the 61 seats needed for a majority, making Opportunity essential to any government. Labour leader Chris Hipkins said his door was open to Opportunity, while National leader Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with party leader Qiulae Wong. The poll comes as three different surveys last week showed varying results, with the Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll putting Opportunity at 4.8%, just below the 5% threshold, though within its margin of error.

Why it matters

Two weeks earlier, the Greens had hit a record 16% as National and Labour both stalled at 28%. By early October, two new polls showed National crashing below 26% while the Opportunity Party held the balance of power. This latest poll signals the race remains extraordinarily tight, with neither major bloc able to command a majority without Opportunity's support—a position the party held as far back as late September.

Follow the whole thread: 2026 election polling and coalition outlook

Key facts

• 1News Verian poll conducted October 8–12, 2026, with 1007 voters
• National 28%, Labour 28%, Opportunity 8%
• Parliament would have 125 seats; right bloc 58, left bloc 52, both need 61 for majority
• General election scheduled 7 November 2026
• Christopher Luxon rules out working with Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong

What happens next

General election on 7 November 2026.

Primary source: 1News Verian poll

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Coverage across the news outlets we track, as at publication.

Where the outlets differ

The Otago Daily Times emphasises the seat projections in detail and notes that Opportunity's 10 seats would decide who governed, explicitly stating "they would get to decide who governed". The interest.co.nz article focuses on the combined left and right bloc seat shortfalls and adds preferred PM numbers showing both Luxon and Hipkins at 20%. Newstalk ZB's version is nearly identical to the NZ Herald's but notes Luxon had ruled out working with Wong rather than saying he repeatedly ruled it out.

What outlets are saying