Coalition retains majority in latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll as NZ First surges

What happened

The Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll conducted October 1–5 shows the coalition parties maintaining enough support to form the next government. National dropped 0.5 points to 28.5%, while Labour rose 2.3 points to 28.2%. New Zealand First surged 3.6 points to 12%, the Green Party fell to 13.3%, and Act dropped to 9.2%. On these numbers, National, Act and NZ First would have 65 seats combined—enough for a majority in the 120-seat House. The Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity bloc would have 55. Opportunity sat at 4.8%, below the 5% threshold, though the poll's 3.1% margin of error means there is a 42% chance it is actually above 5%. In preferred Prime Minister ratings, Labour leader Chris Hipkins jumped 4.1 points to 21%, matching National leader Christopher Luxon at 21.2%. NZ First leader Winston Peters rose 3.2 points to 13.9%. The poll surveyed 1000 people by phone and online.

Why it matters

Since mid-September, polling has swung sharply. On 18 September, Luxon's approval among Māori had collapsed to 4%. By 28 September, the Greens had hit a record 16% and Māori voters were turning to them at 28%. On 6 October, National crashed below 26% with Opportunity holding the balance of power. This latest poll reverses some of that momentum, with NZ First's jump restoring the coalition's numbers and reducing Opportunity's centrality, though the margin remains tight with two weeks until the election.

Follow the whole thread: 2026 election polling and coalition outlook

Key facts

• National 28.5% (down 0.5), Labour 28.2% (up 2.3), NZ First 12% (up 3.6)
• Coalition parties: 65 projected seats; Opposition bloc: 55 projected seats
• 1000 respondents, conducted 1–5 October, margin of error ±3.1%
• Luxon and Hipkins tied at 21.2% and 21% preferred PM respectively

What happens next

The election is scheduled for 7 November 2026.

Primary source: Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, October 1–5 2026

Covered byNZ HeraldOtago Daily Timesinterest.co.nzNot covered byRNZStuff1NewsNewstalk ZBNewsroomThe SpinoffBusinessDesk

Coverage across the news outlets we track, as at publication.

Where the outlets differ

The NZ Herald leads with the coalition's intact majority and mentions two other polls released the same day (RNZ-Reid Research, 1News-Verian) that showed different numbers; interest.co.nz emphasises Opportunity's Kingmaker status and includes the week's policy announcements from each party; the Odago Daily Times frames the story tightly around NZ First's surge and the relative weakness of the major parties in the low 20s.

What outlets are saying