Labour edges ahead of National in Anacta poll as Opportunity hits 5% threshold

What happened

Labour has edged ahead of National in an Anacta poll conducted from 6 to 10 October, with Labour at 29% and National at 28%, both down two points. The Greens climbed three points to 15%, their best result since July 2017, while New Zealand First held at 10%, Act rose one point to 9%, Opportunity fell two points to 5%, and Te Pāti Māori remained at 2%. The two potential coalition blocs are nearly even: National, Act and New Zealand First combine to 48%, while Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori reach 46%. Opportunity holds the balance of power at just over the 5% threshold. Voters increasingly expect a change of government, with 43% predicting a Labour-led administration, up 4%, compared to 32% expecting a National-led one, down 4%. Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon are tied as preferred Prime Minister at 22% each. Among Opportunity voters, 50% prefer Labour-led government versus 10% for National-led. A majority (53%) disapprove of the National-led Government's performance, while 49% think the country is heading in the wrong direction. The poll involved 1352 New Zealanders aged 18 and over with a maximum sampling error of ±2.7 percentage points.

Why it matters

Polling has been volatile in the final weeks before the 7 November election. The Greens surged to record 16% in a 1News Verian poll on 28 September, then reached 28% among Māori roll voters in a Mata-Horizon poll on 1 October. On 6 October, two polls showed National's support collapsing while Greens reached record highs, but a 1News Verian poll on 13 October had National and Labour tied at 28%. This Anacta poll shows Labour now ahead for the first time in recent surveys, with Opportunity as the decisive coalition kingmaker at exactly the 5% threshold.

Follow the whole thread: 2026 election polling and coalition outlook

Key facts

• Labour 29%, National 28% (Anacta poll, 6–10 October)
• Greens up to 15%, their best since July 2017
• Opportunity at 5%, holding balance of power
• 43% expect Labour-led government, up 4 points; 32% expect National-led, down 4 points
• 1352 respondents, ±2.7 percentage point margin of error

Primary source: Anacta poll

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