El Niño to drive up to 11 tropical cyclones across Southwest Pacific this summer

What happened

Earth Sciences New Zealand forecasts between seven and 11 named tropical cyclones across the Southwest Pacific this summer, compared with a long-term average of about nine per season. At least four could reach severe category 3 strength or higher. Principal scientist Dr Andrew Lorrey said El Niño conditions—characterised by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific—are influencing the elevated forecast. The cyclone season could begin earlier than usual, with activity concentrated across the northern, northeastern and central Southwest Pacific. New Zealand's overall cyclone risk remains normal, though northern and western areas facing the Tasman Sea have more chance of experiencing a decaying storm than eastern regions. The most active months for ex-tropical cyclones affecting New Zealand are typically February and March, though they can arrive much earlier. El Niño conditions have already fuelled record-breaking hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific, with at least six deaths in Mexico from flooding and landslides caused by hurricanes, and significant damage to Southern California's coastline.

Key facts

• Seven to 11 named tropical cyclones forecast from November to April
• At least four expected to reach severe category 3 or higher
• Cyclone season typically runs 1 November to 30 April
• New Zealand's normal cyclone risk: zero to potentially one
• In April 2026, Cyclone Vaianu caused evacuations, power outages and flooding across the North Island

What happens next

The tropical cyclone season officially begins on 1 November 2026.

Primary source: Earth Sciences New Zealand's 2026/27 Tropical Cyclone Outlook

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Coverage across the news outlets we track, as at publication.

Where the outlets differ

RNZ leads with advice for Kiwi travellers and Pacific islanders planning summer trips, emphasising practical precautions and the risks to low-lying areas. NZ Herald and 1News provide more detailed scientific explanation of how El Niño shifts atmospheric patterns and wind flows to favour cyclone development. Stuff's excerpt is the most concise. 1News includes specific context about the Atlantic hurricane season's unusual quiet period contrasted with record eastern Pacific activity.

What outlets are saying