BNZ sees no near-term drop in joblessness as services sector stalls
Weak services sector growth means unemployment is unlikely to fall soon, despite positive manufacturing data.
Manufacturing activity showed promise at the start of the third quarter, but the sluggish services sector offers little hope for near-term improvement in unemployment. Separately, US economic data continues to disappoint forecasts, with weak retail sales and consumer sentiment pushing the New Zealand dollar higher against a softening US currency. China is also showing signs of economic slowdown alongside broadening weakness in US economic indicators.
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interest.co.nz
‘Little chance’ of a falling unemployment rate until meaningful services job growth returns, says BNZ
The latest PMI figures point to a ‘positive start’ to the third economic quarter of the year, but the latest PSI figures highlight a slow services sector that don't indicate a change to the unemployment rate anytime soon
interest.co.nz
US economic data consistently weaker
Roger J Kerr does a stocktake of New Zealand’s current economic fundamentals. He also sees US economic results consistently below forecasts that were overly optimistic
interest.co.nz
A softer USD sees the NZD firmer
US retail sales and consumer sentiment were weaker than expected. The post-data US Treasury rally reversed, with 10-year yields ending near 4.70%. Long ends of European curves come under pressure
interest.co.nz
Breakfast briefing: The two top dogs show signs of limping
China reveals some worrying slowdown data and inability to transition; US reveals spreading economic weaknesses; others expand at pace; UST 10yr at 4.70%; gold stable; oil prices firmer; NZ$1 = 58.9 USc; TWI-5 = 62.5